February US Nonfarm Payrolls w/ Christopher Vecchio, CFA

February US Nonfarm Payrolls w/ Christopher Vecchio, CFA
February US Nonfarm Payrolls w/ Christopher Vecchio, CFA

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=C4VBGipRTow?a&controls=1&showinfo=0&rel=0&autohide=1&color=orange&rel=0

US NFP Preview:

  • According to a Bloomberg News survey, consensus forecasts call for a gain of +182K from +49K previously.
  • The release of the February US NFP report may help refocus markets’ collective attention on the Biden stimulus package.
  • Will US Treasury yields continue to rise? Will gold prices continue to weaken alongside the US S&P 500? Has the US Dollar (via the DXY Index) established a short-term bottom?We’ll discuss these questions and more in context of the February US nonfarm payrolls starting at 8:15 EST/13:15 GMT.

Volatility in Underlying Jobs Data

The February US nonfarm payrolls report will be released this morning at 8:30 EST/13:30 GMT, and expectations have started to firm after a few weeks of improved US jobless claims data. According to a Bloomberg News survey, consensus forecasts call for a gain of +182K from +49K previously, with the unemployment rate (U3) due in at 6.3% unchanged. But the February US ADP employment change report came in below expectations (+117K actual vs +177K expected), increasing the odds that we may have another soft labor report around the corner.

Trading Forex News: The Strategy

Recommended by Christopher Vecchio, CFA

Trading Forex News: The Strategy

Regardless, given the scope and scale of the Biden fiscal stimulus package, estimates for both labor market and broad economic growth are increasing at an accelerating rate for the second half of 2021. The release of the February US NFP report may help refocus markets’ collective attention on the Biden stimulus package (for the past year, iterative releases of the weekly and monthly labor reports has typically revived stimulus chatter among market participants).

Will US Treasury yields continue to rise? Will gold prices continue to weaken alongside the US S&P 500? Has the US Dollar (via the DXY Index) established a short-term bottom? We’ll discuss these questions and more in context of the February US nonfarm payrolls starting at 8:15 EST/13:15 GMT. You can join live by watching the stream at the top of this note.

Read more: NFP and Forex: What is NFP and How to Trade It?

— Written by Christopher Vecchio, CFA, Senior Currency Strategist

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